San Diego St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	62.0
Current RPI:	62
Expected SOS:	101
Current SOS:	101
Current Record:	21-10
Expected Record:	21-10
Current Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC RPI:	120
Expected OOC SOS:	196

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-10	62.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	90-68	L	0%
11-17	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	83-52	W	100%
11-20	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	94-63	W	100%
11-23	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	N	52-89	W	100%
11-24	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	N	75-68	W	100%
11-26	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	N	86-93	L	0%
11-30	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	57-66	W	100%
12-3	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	75-52	W	100%
12-9	California (216.0)	P12	H	62-63	L	0%
12-21	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	72-70	W	100%
12-27	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	82-69	L	0%
12-30	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	79-59	W	100%
1-2	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	68-77	W	100%
1-9	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	85-49	W	100%
1-13	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	83-80	L	0%
1-17	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	73-77	L	0%
1-20	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	79-75	L	0%
1-24	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	97-78	W	100%
1-27	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	88-78	L	0%
2-3	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	81-50	W	100%
2-6	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	79-61	L	0%
2-10	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	83-58	L	0%
2-14	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	87-77	W	100%
2-17	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	94-56	W	100%
2-21	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	56-67	W	100%
2-24	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	59-71	W	100%
2-27	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	72-64	W	100%
3-3	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	79-74	W	100%
3-8	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	N	52-64	W	100%
3-9	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	N	73-90	W	100%
3-10	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	N	75-82	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Diego St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Diego St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Diego St.	MWC	26.48	26.48	68.99	68.99	10.06	10.06
Nevada	MWC	5.72	5.72	83.87	83.87	3.88	3.88
Fresno St.	MWC	5.65	5.65	62.96	62.96	1.47	1.47
UNLV	MWC	4.24	4.24	61.29	61.29	0.96	0.96
New Mexico	MWC	4.21	4.21	54.84	54.84	0.41	0.41
Wyoming	MWC	4.21	4.21	60.00	60.00	0.84	0.84
Colorado St.	MWC	4.18	4.18	34.48	34.48	-1.30	-1.30
San Jose St.	MWC	4.14	4.14	11.11	11.11	-3.22	-3.22
Air Force	MWC	4.12	4.12	37.04	37.04	-1.07	-1.07
Boise St.	MWC	4.12	4.12	75.00	75.00	2.06	2.06
Utah St.	MWC	2.77	2.77	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
California	P12	1.72	1.72	23.33	23.33	-0.92	-0.92
San Diego	WCC	1.72	1.72	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Gonzaga	WCC	1.69	1.69	90.91	90.91	1.38	1.38
Arizona St.	P12	1.69	1.69	63.33	63.33	0.45	0.45
Washington St.	P12	1.69	1.69	36.67	36.67	-0.45	-0.45
Bradley	MVC	1.64	1.64	61.29	61.29	0.37	0.37
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.64	1.64	35.71	35.71	-0.47	-0.47
Georgia	SEC	1.61	1.61	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Pacific	WCC	0.35	0.35	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Oregon	P12	0.34	0.34	64.71	64.71	0.10	0.10
Colorado	P12	0.34	0.34	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.26	0.26	84.85	84.85	0.18	0.18
San Francisco	WCC	0.25	0.25	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.24	0.24	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
Santa Clara	WCC	0.23	0.23	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Arizona	P12	0.23	0.23	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.21	0.21	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Utah	P12	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Southern Utah	BSky	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	83.33	83.33	0.12	0.12
BYU	WCC	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.16	0.16	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Washington	P12	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.10	-0.10
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.13	0.13	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
UTEP	CUSA	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	8.00	8.00	-0.10	-0.10
Texas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
IUPUI	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	16.13	16.13	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	A10	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02